Posted Tuesday Jan 6, 2008

Good news: I made nearly $1K in wins today
Bad news: I definitely overtraded! Especially ICE, one I didn't do well with.
(I stayed up late last night watching a terrific Sinatra movie, "The Tender Trap" so didn't get enough sleep - my bad).
Also lesson learned, I correctly shorted USG off the 12.4 repeatedly, but didn't give the trailing cover stops enough
space, so only took modest wins in it.

Here's my "Ken traded wayyy too much today, and would've done better to just stop after 10:30 am in the morning" trade confirmation history:
"Sometimes you're the windshield, other times the bug." At least I banked 1K, but I worked far too hard for it. Note that 60%+ of the winning
P&L today came from selling 5K of BGP into the morning+ move for a $535 win:

Jan 7th, 2008:
Good thing I went to mostly cash in my daytrading acct yesterday, have been buying back favorites here on dips, eg ZLC MGM LVS CAR GGP etc.
For what it's worth, I much prefer buying on dips/selling into rallies, instead of buying high/selling higher. Note the COMPQ runs in roughly 6-day
trends, which is why I sold most of my stocks in my daytrading acct yesterday.

Here's my latest trade confirmations -- I'm a buyer of ZLC LVS MGM CAR GGP BGP BYD etc:




Should be an interesting day, I'm looking to "build" positions in stocks that have sold down. Note it's risky to do so in day 1 (of potentially more
selling days) of a correction/selloff, after an uptrend.

(note these are not trade recommendations; they're simply to learn from, to see what I'm trading myself)

Jan 7th: Down day, went shopping and bought a lot of stock, nearly "all in" stocks now. Finished up here today, just +$256 in wins today.



Note that I'd sold much of my stock yesterday into strength, so I was mostly cash this morning; as things sold down I bought and added to positions, especially oil and casino stocks. Here's the complete trade history for today, these are primarily for swing trading entries:






Unlike yesterday, I don't feel that I overtraded today, my trades were fairly straightforward and I had good reasons for each entry.

Trader homework: pull up each chart in a 2-day and 25-day chart and see if, at the time I bought/sold each position, you can see WHY the entries and exits were made.

We may well still see more selling ahead, but I went ahead an initiated these new positions to potentially capitalize on an "up" day coming after the selling is finished. If these markets are like past ones, we may well see another 3-4 red days ahead, with Nas composite support at the 1400. My GGP ending ++ today, (watch also DDR). Just bought another 200 GGP here at 3:46 after screencap above taken, total position now 1200 at 1.87 avg.

We'll see!

To success,

Ken

(these are not to be construed as trade recommendations, they're just for educational use only, so you can see what I'm trading myself)

Jan 8, 2009
Sold all my GGP into the open run up for decent wins; now trying to figure out best price to re-buy shares at, currently at 2.01 and dropping.
My other positions I entered yesterday while 'shopping for stocks' are all in the red, as anticipated (COMPQ runs usually 3-5 days same-direction in a row); wanted to get in yesterday in case of an upside reversal, since first week in January often gets a lot of buying. Looks like those entries will be in the red today, except for the GGP; will hold through to see where they move during the upcoming few sessions. Will not be trading heavy today since most of cash in stock now, waiting for upside day to sell into.

10:22am EST Technical note: TRIN/TRINQ not wildly bearish, NYSE TRIN at 1.10 and NASDAQ TRINQ at 1.07 at 10:22am EST, so not averse to buying here for oversolds that are starting to bounce.

10:53am EST Nice to see the market's bouncing here a bit, COMPQ up +.82%. In 1k GGP from average 2.07, will see if it continues up.

2:08pm Just sold 2K of my 4K LEE at .54 here on this spike up for a $300 profit. Will re-enter later if it gets over $1, eg next week likely etc, looking to sell into this spike for a quick profit. It's unfamiliar to me to be trading these cheap sub-$10/sub-$1 stocks, but the leverage is great if you get it right, so that's why I'm trading these, vs the over-$30 ones, in this market.

2:20 Sold remaining 2K shares of LEE at .53 here. ca-ching! (now watch it run to $3/share without me lol). But I'm up nearly $700 profit in closed trades for the day so far, that's good. I'll buy it back if it drops sub .45, though it may not do that.

P&L Update: as of 2:25pm EST, I banked $698 in winners today:


Here's my trades as of 2:25pm EST today, Jan 8th 2009:


Amounts in blue are profits, red are stops.

2:30pmEST bought back 1000 at .56 here... Strategy on these cheap-stock pops is to sell all out into brief
rallies like I did, on size, to bank profit... then re-build a position if it drops back to near day's lows, and/or re-buy
on breakouts, using close stops.

3:19pm EST bought back another 1k shares LEE at .58, total position size now 2k at .57
3:24pm EST bought 100 LVS here at 7.31, total position now 800 at 7.72

3:41pm EST bought just 100 PALM here at 4.15, will see if it breaks 5 in coming days/weeks, on cnbc CES/consumer elect. show story

To success,

Ken

(these are not to be construed as trade recommendations, they're just for educational use only, so you can see what I'm trading myself)

Hi Ken,

Thank you for your detailed updates.

You were mentioning in one of your webminars that you have tried to do something similar shorting stocks but it didnt work out as well as going long with these type of stocks and you were so right... again.
I was counting on the market drop so I shorted some stocks (not too crazy, smaller shares); I looked at overbought conditions, stochastics, rsi, adx, candles, r/s, the works... I banked only $300 from those; closed them all today around noon then I entered 41 positions per your teachings and by the end of the day I was up $200.
I think I will stop working with stocks over $30 for intraday trading and focus on these way oversold stocks. I will take your advice and trade more often the individual stock charts and not the market but still keep an eye on the market and trin/trinq.

I owe my success so far to you and for that I thank you.

Val

Thanks, Val!

Fri Jan 9th 8:5- glad to see my PALM buy is a winner, premarket it's gapping up to 5.18 here, I sold my 100 shares premarket for a quick $72 profit. I'd have put on more size yesterday, but I was all in stocks and only had a few hundred bucks left to trade with, for this late-day entry.
It's a winner!

Thanks to Maria on cnbc yesterday for interviewing the PALM ceo, where he revealed their newest gadget, that may have been what drove
this, PALM likely to continue to be volatile in next week's trading, too.



Jan 9th 9:34am EST, looks like they ran it up to 5.6 here, it had dropped to test 5.0 after I sold it, should be interesting; now dropping back
to the 5.33 area. I may rebuy if it clears 6, though unlikely, since it was a $1.50 stock just a month ago... If I do, it'll be likely something
along the lines of buy LMT 6.2, and trail a stop at 5.95 type of entry.

Also sold my DRYS into the opening strength; it, DDR, S are all strong on the open here.

9:49 looks like PALM keeps running up here, at 5.93. Rule #17 in trading: don't regret banking early profits, because for every time
a stock runs without you, after you sell it, there may well be many more times where you did correctly nail within 10-20% of the top/bottom.
I prefer taking profits early and often, especially on gaps up, eg a 1 point gap in a $5 stock is worth selling, even if, as in this case, it keeps
running up later. It's always possible to re-enter for the next trade....

9:56 COMPQ selling off sharply here, down -2.57%, so I will not buy PALM at 6.2; besides I don't like to chase; it's up +11.5% on the day so far.
Sold 1500 of my 2k LEE here for a small $85 profit, since it's up on a down day, keeping the other 500 shares.

So far I banked $261 in winning trades on the day, in this first half-hour. Many of my swings are in the red on this drop in the COMPQ, looks
like a potential pivot here near the 1575, though I'm not looking for aggressive new entries long yet.

Had to go drop off "Doji", our Shih-Tzu, at the vet's.

11:38am: Sold 3K BGP here at .65 for a $228 profit.
11:39am: Sold another 1K BGP here at .64 for another win. Holding 1K left BGP with stop at the .63

Bought 50 DDR earlier 8.29, using initial stop at 7.94, under the 8.0 support line.

11:43EST Scanning. Stock with ticker AZZ gapped up and is near 29. There's gotta be a joke in there somewhere.
HWAY PALM still up

12:04pm EST considering buying back 1k BGP if it continues up, though overhead res at .75
NYSE trin still near-bearish at +1.42, NASDAQ trin no-signal, at 1.0 even. Overall still bearish sentiment, so I'm going
to be very skeptical about buying into this market.

12:17pm EST 25day high in CDNS here, RMBS dropping must be bad news release. PALM looks like a short here 5.95-
cover stop 6.05, but IB didn't have shares to short.

12:20: Watching BGP, will sell remaining 1k shares if it gets lower, or market drops, to bank profit, will buy if it gets higher.
waiting... COMPQ downtick here near the 1585, will see if it drops, or pivots to upside

12:34 sold remaining 1k BGP here at .67, will re-enter if it get up well over the .70 later most likely.

Closed off the day lightening up in ZLC, taking a stop. Added BGP/LVS/PALM into the close.



To success,

Ken

(these are not to be construed as trade recommendations, they're just for educational use only, so you can see what I'm trading myself)

Thanks to all who attended the free webinar today, "How to Swingtrade Casino, Oil and Tech Stocks in January 2009" - I hope it was useful! Be sure to get on the email list to be notified of future events.

-Ken

Monday Jan. 12th 2009:

10:13am EST Not buying anything here; nor selling yet. MGM/LVS/RMBS down on open; ZLC GGP also down from open so far.
CCTYQ (circuit city) up significantly from prior sessions, to .45 here so far (had been just .15 last Thursday, it's tripled
here so far; pullback/pivot likely due soon). BGP had been up on open, but selling down here.

Sitting on sidelines, waiting. Mondays are days in which I don't usually do much, unless there's an extreme move, which is unusual.

I would be adding to positions here on pivots, but all my cash is tied up in stocks since I'd been buying during the last 2 sessions.
Given the likely increased volatility in January ("january effect" buying, window dressing by funds etc), I didn't want to miss out on
potential upside earlier reversals; looks like I got in a bit too early this time (and most of my swing entries are red here from the entries
I made mid-to-late last week). So I get to wait til they get buyers again.

Remember, the COMPQ usually has been moving in 5-6 day trends, prior to pivots. Looking at the NASDAQ Composite chart,
most recent UPtrend was Dec 30th-Jan 6th, this current DOWNtrend started Jan 7th and is continuing today; if the pattern holds,
then we'll likely see selling for up to Jan 14th-15th, then a consolidation/upside trend start up again.

12:09 pm EST So far a red day in the markets, positions like ZLC MGM LVS down quite a bit; will not stop out though, as I'm anticipating an up move in the markets starting Jan 15th at the latest, so I don't want to sell bottoms. Holding steady. Just wish I had capital freed up to buy into bounces if/when these make pivots. I don't use margin, all cash in all my trades, so I've simply got to be patient.

Lessons learned: don't buy too early into downtrend pivots; remember the 5-6 day COMPQ cycles, keep at least 10% cash on hand for adding to existing positions and/or initiating new positions during hard down days on reversal upside moves/short covering/volume pivots.

January 13th, 2009 10:10am EST

See?? Don't panic. Market's up already +1.07% (Nas COMP) from the open here at 10:10am. Consolidating here at the 1555, we'll see if it holds and we get more buying. If not, at least there's a base at 1530 for initial support to work off of. Since I'm all in stocks, I have to wait for bounces to sell into, to free up capital for trading, since my positions I got into earlier this week are all in the red, due to yesterday's selloff. So I wait. I wouldn't be buying longs here anyways myself, since this may just be a brief short-covering spike only in the market; I'm waiting for things to clear prior day's highs before initiating new longs.

Post-market -- see how the Nasdaq composite moves? Looks like this was a consolidation day today, COMPQ in a 1520-1560 range today/yesterday. Once it breaks one of those levels, we'll see more clearly what direction it's headed in. I'd like to see a long day that takes it back up to over the 1580 resistance from 2 days ago, sometime this week.

January 14th, 2009 9:35am EST

Nas composite gapped down on weak futures and is bouncing long here a bit to test 1530, so far no solid trades look worth entering yet.

10:34am EST Looks like it's still selling down here, testing 1500 support. Major support not til Nov lows of 1300. TRINs up.

After-market: Red day again; anticipating a long day Thur or Fri, if the pattern from the last few weeks holds, eg 5-6 days in a single directional trend before pivoting/consolidation.

January 15th, 2009 10:01am EST

Markets continue to drop here, currently bouncing off initial support at 1470; 2-day low in the Nasdaq composite, and bearish trins. Not trading today most likely. Big drops in C, BAC, LEAP, ARTC, EXM on open.


Post market: as anticipated, today ended up being a bullish day, we'll see if it continues tomorrow. Remember we trade based on *patterns*, like this 5-6 day NASDAQ/NYSE composite trend pattern I spotted weeks ago, and candle and western patterns. Dow 8000 near-term support.

-k

9:42am EST
Looks like the financial markets aren't bullish on this inauguration day, no surprise there, COMPQ down -.7% on the open so far.

Personally I'm looking to add to longer-term position trades on the current market weakness, eg casino/oil stocks (OIL, DXO, MGM, LVS) on first signs of bounces/long action returning. Things are starting to get down near November lows, and while there's likely some short-term selling that will continue, for position trades I'm very comfortable about entries here, eg if one can buy now, hold into the spring/summer (and/or early market rallies that occur during Feb/March).

For November lows, use 60 day charts, as that occured back Nov 20th, the absolute lowest of the market year, which will likely find some support returning as stocks/markets approach those levels.

10:03am EST:
Markets selling down sharply, Nasdaq Composite -2.55% here during the first half hour.

5:03pm EST:
Markets continued selling sharply all day, ending deeply in the red. It's times like this that I look for potential pivots within the next several trading sessions, to the upside. Typically we've had 5-6 day trends that reverse in the broad markets, this time the inauguration was a (negative) market-moving event, so we'll see what pattern if any emerges later this week.

Remember, when things feel red and markets are sold off sharply, though we may see a couple more sessions in the red, I'd anticipate a relief/short covering rally to the upside long sometime in the next 5-6 sessions. I was right about last week's Thur/Fri upside moves following the down markets, we'll see if buyers return this week for buying up what looks to be oversold stocks. I'm still long-term bullish and in oil/casino stocks (OIL/DXO/MGM/LVS), should be interesting to see if we get upside moves coming up during the next week or so. Not trading right now since all capital's tied up in currently-red swing positions, holding for when buyers return myself. If I had additional capital in the accounts I've been actively trading, I'd certainly be adding modestly to positions here for upside longer-term position longs. I don't use margin, all is in cash accounts.

NASDAQ composite lost -88 points today, the DOW lost -332! Very red day, no surprise given the current political events.

-Ken