Looking at the recent rally in the EUR/USD move upwards, it's been a great move.

Now, following this strong run, it looks like it's time to exit... personally (and this is *not* investment advice!), I would be looking to lock in profits by CLOSING 1/2 of all open Long position/swing plays in EUR/USD if it gets under 1.5350... and trailing a stop at the 1.5000 on the rest of any long position.

Here's the 7-day candle chart (see the 'bear cup' breakdown on loss of support at 1.55 on 3/20?):



Here's the 1-year, for the "30 thousand foot" view. See the pivot? Here's a great place to exit if it drops to the 1.5350:



Since the pullback is the same depth in magnitude (size of single biggest red candle) as prior pullbacks, which then
found support, that's why I would not be exiting immediately, but rather waiting for confirmation on loss of the 1.5350.
Traders, getting your EXITs right is one of the biggest challenges; this is a good example of how I'd be locking in a
win on an open long, were I long the EUR/USD here, just in case it goes down further, if it takes out 1.5350-...

Thoughts? Thanks for sharing!


To bigger winners, more often -

Ken

Hello Ken,

I think I would have to agree with you. Additionally, I would like to say that had I been long the pair I would have exited between 5600 and 5700.
Why?? Well, I trade a lot of 123 set ups and as shown by the hourly chart, we had a very good 123 top which i entered short just around the 5700 zone.

Probabilities and pattern recognition tells me that price is either going to fall from here if it closes below the psychological 00 number at 1.5400 or it is going to go up if it can close above 1.5475 with a possible short term resistance target at 1.5600-1.5680.

From the daily chart I would target the 1.5000 zone as my short target, since it seems like a good resistance turned support area.

Whilst I have no bias, it is obvious that the short has more potential in terms of profit and like you, should the bottom fail to hold, then all the longs would look to cover their positions thereby causing greater capitulation due to the selling momentum that would be created.

Of course, we just have to wait and see what happens with this consolidation.

the other possibility is that it breaks support, goes down a little and then reverse upwards.

If this happens, I would be loading the boat to the long side once it closes back above the 1.5500 level.

But I do not see the pair rallies for a very very long time.
Setting up for a grand sell.

Hi Ken,

I would like to give a news floating in the market currently about this pair that Chairman Ben Bernanke stated that the markets are being closely watched, and that the Fed is willing to provide further assistance to reinforce them, such as emergency lending facilities for big Wall Street firms among other measures.
This statement contributed to the rise of the dollar, which was also boosted by the $10 fall in oil prices from its peak of about $146 a barrel. This assured investors' concerns about the erosive impact of oil prices on global growth and corporate profits.
Yet traders believe that a steeper fall in oil prices is needed in order to truly improve the state of the dollar: a drop below $120 would turn dollar's condition upside down, according to senior analysts. Yet there was little change in oil prices on Tuesday, which were traded around $136 a barrel.
The euro also steadied at $1.5666, a retreat from the $1.5740 high before Bernanke's speech. The European currency lost its two-month peak of $1.5910 from last week, but remains between the May and June low of about $1.5300 and April's peak of $1.6020.



Happy news trading!!!