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Old 01-12-2009, 10:11 AM
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Ken Ken is offline
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Monday Jan. 12th 2009:

10:13am EST Not buying anything here; nor selling yet. MGM/LVS/RMBS down on open; ZLC GGP also down from open so far.
CCTYQ (circuit city) up significantly from prior sessions, to .45 here so far (had been just .15 last Thursday, it's tripled
here so far; pullback/pivot likely due soon). BGP had been up on open, but selling down here.

Sitting on sidelines, waiting. Mondays are days in which I don't usually do much, unless there's an extreme move, which is unusual.

I would be adding to positions here on pivots, but all my cash is tied up in stocks since I'd been buying during the last 2 sessions.
Given the likely increased volatility in January ("january effect" buying, window dressing by funds etc), I didn't want to miss out on
potential upside earlier reversals; looks like I got in a bit too early this time (and most of my swing entries are red here from the entries
I made mid-to-late last week). So I get to wait til they get buyers again.

Remember, the COMPQ usually has been moving in 5-6 day trends, prior to pivots. Looking at the NASDAQ Composite chart,
most recent UPtrend was Dec 30th-Jan 6th, this current DOWNtrend started Jan 7th and is continuing today; if the pattern holds,
then we'll likely see selling for up to Jan 14th-15th, then a consolidation/upside trend start up again.

12:09 pm EST So far a red day in the markets, positions like ZLC MGM LVS down quite a bit; will not stop out though, as I'm anticipating an up move in the markets starting Jan 15th at the latest, so I don't want to sell bottoms. Holding steady. Just wish I had capital freed up to buy into bounces if/when these make pivots. I don't use margin, all cash in all my trades, so I've simply got to be patient.

Lessons learned: don't buy too early into downtrend pivots; remember the 5-6 day COMPQ cycles, keep at least 10% cash on hand for adding to existing positions and/or initiating new positions during hard down days on reversal upside moves/short covering/volume pivots.
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